Given my futile timing experiments in the past, I had understood that getting out of the markets to sidestep a fall and re-entering back just before the recovery, was far more difficult than it looks.
Obviously I had started communicating it to my clients. But somehow since most of them hadn’t experienced it firsthand, they weren’t convinced 100%.
I don’t blame them.
Given the way the media and a lot of experts communicate, there is always a feeling that someone out there knows on how the event will unfold.
No one can time the market is a reality which all of us will eventually learn. Mostly the hard way.
So the question for me was, how do I help you out without you needing to go through the trouble of few bad experiences.
To be honest, while I understood the ‘difficulty of timing’ intuitively, I didn’t know the exact reason why it was difficult?
That is when I decided to look at all the past market declines more than 20%.
When I looked at all of them, I had my ‘Eureka’ moment.
A pattern started emerging which was exactly the same across each and every fall.
Despite each and every fall having a different reason, different magnitude and time frame, the behavior of equity markets was exactly the same across all of them.
Curious to find out the pattern?
Read the article in detail here
For those short of time, here is the tweet thread
You can also share your feedback or queries at rarun86@gmail.com. Not that I have got it all sorted, but I maybe of some help:)
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Disclaimer: All blog posts are my personal views and do not reflect the views of my organization. I do not provide any investment advisory service via this blog. No content on this blog should be construed to be investment advice. You should consult a qualified financial advisor prior to making any actual investment or trading decisions. All information is a point of view, and is for educational and informational use only. The author accepts no liability for any interpretation of articles or comments on this blog being used for actual investments.
The Eighty Twenty Investor 